INDIKATOR On Chain Bitcoin

Ada 200 lebih indikator on-chain.

Tujuannya adalah :

1. mengetahui harga saat ini mahal atau murah

2. mengetahui kapan market berubah dari bearish ke bullish, atau sebaliknya

.

Ini kandidatnya :

🟣 15 CORE SIGNALS

VALUATION

1. MVRV

2. STH-MVRV

3. Mayer Multiple

HOLDER

4. SOPR

5. LTH Supply

6. HODLer Net Position Change

7. Revived Supply / BCDD

CAPITAL

8. Realised Cap

9. Net Realised P/L

10. ETF Net Flow

11. Stablecoin Net Position / SSR

12. Global Liquidity 30D Change

LEVERAGE

13. Futures OI + Price

14. Funding Rate

MINING

15. Puell + Hash Ribbons

RISK OVERLAY

16. Drawdown from ATH

Kandidat FINAL 10

# Indikator     

1 MVRV Mahal/murah?

2 STH-MVRV Holder baru stres/euforia?

3 SOPR Holder menjual profit/loss?

4 LTH Supply Strong hands bertambah/berkurang?

5 HODLer Net Position Accumulation/distribution?

6 Realised Cap Capital base berkembang?

7 ETF Net Flow Institutional demand?

8 Futures OI + Funding Leverage berbahaya?

9 Stablecoin/Global Liquidity Liquidity mendukung?

10 Drawdown from ATH Risk/reward saat ini?

Kalau kita backtest, hasilnya :

Rank Indikator Empirical evidence DCA usefulness

🥇 Drawdown from ATH ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

🥈 MVRV / MVRV Z ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

🥉 CVDD ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

4 NUPL ⭐⭐⭐⭐½ ⭐⭐⭐⭐

5 STH-MVRV ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

6 SOPR ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐

7 Puell ⭐⭐⭐½ ⭐⭐⭐⭐

8 LTH Supply / HODL ⭐⭐⭐½ ⭐⭐⭐⭐

9 ETF Flow ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐

10 OI + Funding ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐

11 Liquidity ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐½

12 Hash Ribbons ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐

13 Realised Cap ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐

14 HODLer Net Position ⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐

15 Active Address Momentum ⭐⭐½ ⭐⭐½

Kita cek untuk sinyal juara :

🥇 Drawdown from ATH

https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/tradfi/tradfi_btc_vs%20tradfi_drawdown_0/tradfi_btc_vs%20tradfi_drawdown_0_light.html

Aturannya:

≥30% drawdown → beli kecil

≥40% → beli lebih besar

≥50% → beli lebih besar lagi

Posisi bottom terakhir :

- 20 Juni 2026 -53,2%

🥇 MVRV / MVRV Z

https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_lth_zscore/mvrv_lth_zscore_light.html

MVRV sendiri banyak jenisnya.

Sehingga bisa kita buat 5 lapisan area :

LAYER 1 — PRICE RISK

Drawdown from ATH : "Seberapa sakit market saat ini?"

LAYER 2 — VALUATION

MVRV / MVRV Z : "Apakah harga sudah jauh dari aggregate cost basis?"

LAYER 3 — EXTREME ACCUMULATION

CVDD : "Apakah kita sudah mendekati zona historical floor?"

LAYER 4 — HOLDER STRESS

STH-MVRV + SOPR : "Apakah recent buyers sedang capitulation?"

LAYER 5 — MARKET STRUCTURE

ETF Flow + OI/Funding : "Apakah capital masuk dan apakah market terlalu leveraged?"

Dari data ini, 

Bagaimana strategy di masa depan, dimana kemungkinan drawdown akan berubah :

data onchain penting :

drawdown: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/technical/technical_drawdowns_0/technical_drawdowns_0_light.html",

mvrv: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_all/mvrv_all_light.html",

mvrvZ: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_all_zscore/mvrv_all_zscore_light.html",

sthMvrv: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/sthmvrv_indicator/sthmvrv_indicator_light.html",

lthSopr: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/realised/lthsopr_indicator/lthsopr_indicator_light.html",

nupl: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/nupl/nupl_light.html",

lthSupply: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/supply/lthnetposchange_0/lthnetposchange_0_light.html",

hodler: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/cointime/hodlernetpositionchange/hodlernetpositionchange_light.html",

etf: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/etfs/etf_mvrv/etf_mvrv_light.html",

funding: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/derivatives/derivatives_futures_fundingrate/derivatives_futures_fundingrate_light.html",

oi: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/derivatives/derivatives_futures_oi_byexchange_0/derivatives_futures_oi_byexchange_0_light.html",

sopr: "https://charts-cdn.checkonchain.com/btconchain/realised/sopr/sopr_light.html"

semoga sehat selalu....